153: 2025 Oscar Predictions

Many categories heading into the 97th Academy Awards are wide open. As Alex and Nick break down the narratives of every race, topics include “Anora’s” overall chances, potential mini-waves from “Conclave” and/or “Wicked,” Demi vs. Mikey, Timmy vs. Brody, "Flow" vs. "The Wild Robot," important nominated documentaries, why acting sweeps happen, and so much more.

Tune in to Instagram Live at WAYW_Podcast the day of the awards for our final Oscar picks. Sunday March 2, 2025, 2:30p.m. PST.

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Transcript

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Oh no no no. Oh no no no no. Oh, God. Oh! Oh, no no no no. Today this could be the greatest day of our lives. Here we go. This will be fun. It's meant to be fun. Hey, everyone. Welcome to. What are you watching? I'm Alex with throw it up. Joined by my best man, Nick, though. Still. How you doing there, Bob Dylan? Oh, I'm, I'm I'm. You know, I'm just going to say it's a popular thing to say right now, but, I'm here for greatness. And I think anyone who listens to this podcast knows that that I am. I am the Michael Jordan of podcasting. And I'm Daniel Day Lewis. Sing this I am, I'm out for it and I'm here. Said it, I meant it. I'm here to represent it, and, Let's go. If you know what I mean. I really appreciate you coming in with that perspective, because, wow, that that as we were texting about old Timmy Shallow Bay's SAG speech last night, that was a choice. That was a choice. What he said. And he is, but he is very lucky that Oscar voting ended on February 18th, and those awards took place last night on February 23rd. If he would have won, let's say, the Golden Globe and gave that speech. Given that speech, I don't know if his best actor chances would be looking good, but he's lucky the votes have already been cast, so if he wins, that speech will have nothing to do with it. But yeah, that was choice. It was, I mean, I don't know, I guess I got to say, I, I don't really mind if someone wants to get cocky, if someone just kind of wants to throw out, like, I mean, this is a statement that, you know, he's just. But the thing that bothered me was that, like, he just referred to the SAG Award as like, this doesn't mean that at all. It's just, it's just like it's something along the way. And I was like, well, I mean, it kind of means something your peers voted for. It's like a big deal of it. Yeah. So for those who are just tuning in, welcome to what are you watching? Welcome to what are you watching? Yeah. Last night were the Screen Actors Guild awards, you know, this, this episode, here are Oscar predictions episode. I tried to record it definitely over the weekend, but because things got pushed, the Sags were last night on a Sunday. So we had to push this recording because that was it. The Sags again, Oscar voting is already done, but those sags could be an indicator of how people also voted in the Oscars, which will be very important as we discuss Best Actor and Best Actress in particular. But yeah. Timothee Shallow May won Best actor and it's his first big. It's his first precursor award that he's won. Yeah. And it is a big one. It's the one you want to win like it because there is a direct correlation with who votes for the Sags and who votes for the Oscars. Again, it's just the actors voting in SAG. So that's just one branch of the Academy voters. But it's a really, really large branch. And that matters. So he won. He seemed genuinely surprised when his name was called. He gets on stage, he's saying stuff. And then yeah, he does. What I often think these young actors do, these young male actors, the women usually don't get up there and say like this, though. Like he did not accept her BAFTA award going, I'm striving for greatness. This doesn't mean that this award, this BAFTA doesn't mean that. But it's a good step. And that's just what he said. That's exactly what he said he qualified it with. I know a lot of people don't say stuff like this. I know a lot of people all talk like this, but I want to be one of the greats. You know, I put Marlon Brando, Michael Jordan and, it's a really head scratching thing of like, this is why I'm in this, business is to be one of the greats when you kind of want to go. A lot of people are in this business. Just like that award always starts with these stories. And I'm Mighty Madison. I'm an actor. Like a lot of people want to be in this business just to make a living, not to, like, be winning awards and being considered great. So yeah, there's this real big lack of humility that goes in and yeah, you're right. Cockiness. Okay. Sometimes there's a place for it. RDJ was cocky as hell all last year. We know this. I will not, argue against that claim at all, but yeah, we're it. We'll see about Timmy. I think that's what it is. I, I honestly have no problem with if someone actually boasts that they are in this to be the greatest to have ever do it, I don't I don't have a problem with someone making that statement. I do think maybe there's a time and a place. Yeah. I don't know if in the middle of winning an award is the time to announce that. I think there's a lot of other platforms where, especially in today's day and age, you can go out and say, I think if it was anywhere else, maybe on the campaign trail, if a 60 minutes. I think he actually said that. I think there was like, I don't know if it was 60 minutes, but he was on some CBS Sunday Morning. Yeah, he's been doing the rounds. Yeah, yeah he has. And he did say that. And I go, hey, you know what, fuck it bro. Like you want to be that. I mean, who only time will tell if that will come to be, but I don't mind someone who is at a certain level who is kind of taking a shot and being like, you know what? Fuck it. I'm here to be the best to have ever done it. I like it because I'm like, all right, let's see what you can do. Yeah. Except maybe not exactly. Winning an award that was voted on for you by your peers. Maybe not the best time to kind of take that moment for yourself. Honestly, I think the Oscars would have been a better time if he wins that award there, because, like, I don't know, it's not in a room for the people that were like, oh, I'm an actor too. I guess I want to be good. I don't know. Yeah, exactly. That's all I'm saying. That's all it is. Time and place. Time in a place? Yeah. That's it. It read the room time in a place. And. But taking several steps back. The last episode we recorded was our top ten of 2024. We touched on the Oscars a little bit, but we did not have a lot of these precursor awards out of the way there. There have been favorites in the acting categories from the get, like before the year was even done, seemingly. But there are some major awards, especially two weeks ago, that were pretty wide open. And then things started to change. Oh, did you get it? Interesting. And I started to get really, really nervous because shortly after we recorded that episode, the Directors Guild of America had their awards. Sean Baker wins for Nora. That same day, the Producers Guild had their awards. What wins a Nora? That's right. We're checking them off. We're not going about the Writers Guild of America Awards came out. What won best original Screenplay? That's right. And Nora, so we're checking them off. The BAFTAs happen. I didn't even have them in the running for anything because they're usually going to favor British performers. That's just the way the British directors. That's the way it goes. Mikey Madison wins Best Actress and she is stunned, hurt. She was stunned when she won. Demi Moore was nominated like they're nominated. So that got it going where I'm like, okay, I did not know when Nora was going to become a frontrunner of anything. We were just hoping for editing or screenplay, and now I don't know how it. I don't know if she's the frontrunner to win actress, but now she is filling in the running and it just feels good. Yeah, yeah. So we we have an interesting and interesting race ahead. I think in that category. That's the race. I think that's the big race, the races. Demi Moore and and Mikey Madison. Yeah, we're going to talk about it. You cannot count out. Count out Fernando Taurus I could see a sneak coming in there and taking it. Demi Moore like first of all, she's in half of that movie. She's in half of the substance. And it's a very, very, it's a, sci fi movie. Like, it's a very body horror movie. I don't know if anything like that has ever won in a major, a major awards, certainly not acting. Mikey's right there. But then Fernanda Taurus, I don't know. That movie's been making so many waves. And I think that movie I'm Still Here is going to win best International Feature Film and that. So I'm just saying, look, look out for it, bro. You're listen, man, you're you're out of your element, Donnie. You don't know what if you're going to start this shit with me again right at the top of this last year. But last year, I mean, there were some surprises last year that I threw at you, like, right before the show started on our live stream. And you were calling me insane. And then it ended up winning like American Fiction won adapted screenplay, which I just thought was going to happen. So some shit can happen. All I'm saying is, all right, we're getting way ahead of ourselves. Let's back. Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah. Welcome to settle your tea kettle. We we've had some fun precursor awards. I really didn't think. I thought this was going to shape up to be a, I don't know, a conclave. Amelia Perez like we talked about this and it could be boring. Could could like wicked win everything. I don't think we're going to win much at all. I think they're going to save that for the next time. So some movies have been too controversial. Some things have been. We were promised that it was going to be great and then it ended up sucking hello, brutalist. And then you have these nice little gems like a Nora who were just kind of sitting there. Like we've been saying, it's funny, if you go back to our our initial episode where we were, it was just Oscar morning where they just listed out the nominees. At the end of that, we were like, it's a race between Amelia Perez and the brutalist. Yeah, yeah, that was sort of the race. And then throughout all this controversy, in a way I feel bad for Amelia Perez because one person brought down thousands of other people that worked on a movie, and you can say whatever you want about it, but I mean, nevertheless, it garnered 13 Academy Award nominations. It's a movie that was set up for success. It has Netflix behind it, and one person just halted the ship. And I'm not saying that I wanted Amelia Perez or anything like that, but I don't have anything against it at all. But I just think it sucks for the project. It sucks for everyone else who's involved. Like how many people in this lifetime become nominated for an Academy Award for Best Picture? I think of Jackie or Jacques Audiard. You know, this director, he he made the movie he wanted to make, and it sounds like there was never any problems on set. All of a sudden, home to 13 Academy Awards, then all of a sudden and now you're just completely blind sighted. You have no leg to stand on. It just sucks. And there's nothing good for Zoe Saldana though for she's I think she's I think she's going to keep this train running to for her supporting actress award. The supporting awards are locked up. There's no one has won. Anything else? Any precursor award, no one is winning anything. And she has. She is on the controversy has nothing to do with her. If anything, she's the only one who's come through this unscathed. Where people are like, Amelia Perez is the biggest piece of shit to ever exist. But Zoe. So he was good. She was art. Like, that's the I don't like the movie. You're like, no, but she's cool. She's all right. She's cool. I mean, she kills it too. Yeah. It's the way I feel about Brody in the brutalist. I obviously do not like that movie at all, but I'm like, yeah, he's cool. Like, if he wins a second Oscar, I'm not going to be angry. But I mean, yeah, when we talk about Best Actress, is she going to show up? Gascon. She says she is. She says she's showing up. That'll be. Oh, that's going to be an amazing show based out. Yeah. She's showing up. She's a good. Well fortunately there's there's no tables so. No just you know I don't know where they're gonna sit her I don't either I mean I guess. Yeah I have no idea. Front row center. Just go for it next to Jackson. Yeah. Got to be great of Jack showed up. Jack was at the SNL 50 reunion. Yes, he was great. He had a great little intro. All right, let's go through these awards. We're going to go through all the nominations again I'm going to talk about where the narratives are for every category. You and I will both talk about where the narratives are for the bigger categories. But, you know, just insofar as I know and we're going to predict who's going to win these. I don't know, though, though I have I'm making a claim right here, right now. I'm saying it. Yeah. March 2nd, 2025 I will beat you in our prediction. I'm going to beat you. I'm going to do it. What do I get when I win? Can I punch you in the face? You know you can punch Dan in the face. We did that last year and he didn't agree to. And he got upset. And that's why he did get upset. It did a little. He thought I was serious. He yeah he did all right. We'll see. It'll just be a friendly spirited competition. Friendly spirit terms are good. You think you're going to win? Yeah. For the first time, I'm coming for you. Thinks he's going to win? Good. All right, well, here we go. I got close last year. Yeah. You did. There were some curveballs. Like I didn't have, Stone winning. I thought Lily Gladstone was going to win. Yeah, there were some curveballs there at the end, but who still won? Who still ahead? Vic? Well, I mean, yeah, but that's where it's changing this year. You feel the tide turning. You're literally combing your mustache in front of me like an evil bond villain. Well, getting in my mouth, you know, you. I need something to play with. I'll play with my knife instead. All right? I used to play with my nuts instead. No, Nicholas, this is what happens. We start recording at 5 p.m.. My time. It's a punchy time. It's a Monday. Okay. Best visual effects. I don't have the slightest fucking clue. All right, here we go. Nominated our alien Romulus. Better man. Dune part two. Kingdom of the planet of the apes. Wicked. I feel like this has to be Dune Part two. Or wicked. Right? Like it doesn't. I think that's yeah, I mean, 10,000, the better man could. No, It could. Absolutely not. His song. No, I know it's possible. It's a Pearl jam animated. Movie. You know, it's like he's a robin. I know he's a monkey. Yeah, yeah, it's a monkey. Yes, I think it's Dune and Wicked that are up for these, though. I mean, I don't know, man. These plenty of the apes movies are always fucking nominated. And they've won this award before. Yeah, they may have. They may have. And honestly, the visual effects in wicked were not good. But that doesn't mean anything. It can still win. No it doesn't. The Dune part two I like that seeing the worm come out like that was that was nuts. So I would look at that winning I guess maybe it went because Dune Part two. Not a lot of nominations obviously. So these first two awards are two of its only nominations, but sound a complete unknown. Dune part two Amelia Perez, wicked, The Wild Robot I think I would just toss it off the Dune part two as well. I mean, a complete unknown is is there and sounds great, but these don't. They're they don't. Usually these performance movies don't usually win best sound. No they don't. It was, this is probably the only time I'll get to talk about this, though. I saw the, Q&A with the sound guys from a complete unknown. Oh, I didn't know they were there, and. Oh, yeah. Oh, it was, it was the. It was mangled. It was the costume designer. It was the production designer. It was. Oh, that's like an academy screening. They're like, yeah, okay. It was awesome. The I mean, what was I mean, it's not really a secret, but I mean, the way that they recorded all of that music and what you hear, they said 95% of what you end up hearing in the movie is all performance based, that's recorded live, and that's very rare and it's very, very rare. They did do pre recordings like as, like a soundtrack as this or that, but what they ended up going with for the movie was the actual live performances. And the only way they could get the microphones, to exactly where they needed to be was they actually had to put them in the actor's hair. Oh, so that's a way to kind of like. Yeah. And, and because for a lot of, Timmy's stuff, he was wearing wigs, so they had to kind of like pump that and just interesting stuff there. But yes. When you talk, I mean, I don't know, fucking, Bohemian Rhapsody took this. It's true. And that was all manufactured. But I think, yeah, you're right. These performance things don't usually do it, I think. I think it could be down to Dune or Wicked. I think. I think it's between Dune and a complete unknown. And you. I didn't remember Bohemian Rhapsody. You're right. That was the last year they did sound and sound. Editing? No. Yeah. 2019 was. That's right. Ford versus Ferrari. All right. Yeah. Ford for that one. And then when 1917 one as well. So they split it that year. But like our last four sound winners have been Sound of Metal which is a great one. Dune. Yeah. Top Gun Maverick and then the Zone of Interest one last year that was a good win because sound like it's a big part of that movie. So I would look for a complete unknown or Dune part two. But I think a lot of people are going to see visual effects and sound and just go down to Dune two, you know, like check them off. I mean, I wouldn't have an issue with Dune winning it either, because the sound in Dune is incredible. Like it's I mean, as cinema goes, it's it's on the money. It's it has everything. It gives you all of that and it does it very, very well. I agree, I agree, okay. I've actually had a chance to see some of these now. Best, short live action alien. That's one that I saw. Wow. Very like, it's just a situation of someone going, you know, husband and wife going with their son to get some legalization documents for him. And it's actually, like a secret ice raid. Very, very prescient. Yeah, it's it's on. It's online for free. That would be what I would want to win. I really, really liked it. A new shows on Netflix about two girls. It was really good. Just easy to watch. I am not a robot God. If 2024 was not the year of the movie robot, my god, you would have absolutely hated the short. It was about a woman trying that captcha code over and over again to prove are you a robot? So she just like kept trying it on her computer and like it wouldn't work. And then she kept trying. I think it would have driven you mad, but I found that online too. For free. How long was it? I'm. No, no, it was like 12 minutes. I'm not a robot. I think the longest one unusual was like 25. Alene was only like 12 minutes. It's really, really good. And then the last Ranger and the man who could not remain silent. I haven't seen. And that last title is great, but I don't believe one of those is not available anywhere yet. But of course, I've seen three and one of the other two will probably win. You know, we could, when you're here, we could take advantage of those, screenings. Yeah, I will, the thing is, a lot of these are online. You just have to like, I've seen most of the documentary shorts. I've seen all the documentary shorts, actually. So those are online. Like, those were easy to find. But yeah, you're right. I mean, I don't want to go sit in animated one. So maybe the live action I figure you were going to. Yeah. No. So, what's going to win best short live action? I might I would vote for a lean. But again, I haven't seen the last Ranger. Haven't seen the man who could be silent. I don't even know if the people who vote on these things see them either, though, if I'm being honest. Or is it. Is it pronounced a lean or a lee in it's lean, like you need to lean on something like a lean on a house. I don't know, makes you think you know everything. I don't know everything. You just asked me. I didn't just tell you what you would be. Watch me be wrong. A lean is a legal claim on a property or asset to secure payment of a debt boom. Yeah, like a lean on a house. Lean on a car. Well, they should spell it like that. It's why your mom's car got repossessed at one time. Just kidding. What's that road that's made it up? I'm just fucking punching like, just joking. I was going for a little bit of that goodwill, I think thing, like, remember your mother put a couch on layaway? So you do come up here, get your sandwich. Layaway. Layaway. Best short film animated. Have not seen a one of them. Here. The nominees. Beautiful men in the shadow of the Cyprus magic candies. Wander to wonder and. Yuck! So I haven't seen them. I wouldn't mind judging those. If I can find some yuck that would probably get my vote. I like that one. Or I like that name. Yeah, it's good to name magic candies. It sound like, you know, some gummies. I mean, that sounds psychedelic, baby, I like it. You want you to. Debbie. Shit, I could be. I mean, I don't mean to hate on sometimes. These are actually good. I've seen some that are really good and intense. The movies, the shorts nominated for this. So I if I can get Ahold of them in the next week. These Oscars are only six fucking days away like it's Monday six. You know, they're definitely Sunday. They're going to happen. It's happening. All right. Production design. Okay. Best production design. I know there's me. The brutalist conclave. Dune part two. Nozpheratu. Wicked. I don't know, I don't really have my pulse on this. I think I know, and I think this might set up a wave that you might not see coming here. Awakening. We're going to head off. We're going to have a we're going to have a wicked wave. We will have a wicked wave. I just don't know how big it will wind. Yeah. Some thing I just don't. What I consider a mini wave is four wins. So like for me and it it could get that. But if they're going to start winning stuff I think it would be here because the production design, what was actually there, the sets were what you'd want from wicked, like the visual effects I think lived up to it. But what was there, you know, the sets then everything. I'm like, okay, I get it. The the world is here. That stuff was not CGI. A lot of the sets weren't. So I could see then. Yeah. Taking it. How many do you think it's going to walk away with? Well, I mean, if we're wrong about Dune and Sal or, Yeah, we're wrong about Dune. It could go visual effects and sound, and then you get production design. You're already talking about the major technical awards going to wicked, and I'm sure it's going to win some kind of song business. Maybe even hair and makeup. But all the substance, it's got a good shot. Well, we'll get to it, we'll get to it, we'll get to it. So I would think this is production design is nozpheratu versus wicked. And I mean you're making a good point I think I think yeah, if it's going to come in and win something it could win that. So look for wicked here. Look for an Oscar. I think Nozpheratu could walk away with two maybe as well. Or that could just go to wicked. Like they could give it costume. I mean cinematography, wicked sound nominated. But so you're thinking wicked production design. I if I, if I'm, if I'm thinking with my winning mentality that I'm going to best deal with on Sunday, then I'm going, I'm thinking with wicked, I think the way you should vote is you just should predict wicked to win everything, then I think you'll win. I mean, I don't want to get in your head. I don't want to get your head. I mean, it's impossible as I'm my own man and I. And I'd be to the beat of my own drum. And my drum tells me that a complete unknown should have been nominated right here for production design. Yeah, yeah. Kidding. I mean, you know how I feel about the brutalist. I would absolutely give it a complete unknown. That slot over there. Yeah, exactly, exactly. Best song. They have a really good opportunity here because we have two songs nominated from Amelia Perez LOL and Me Camino. I don't know which one of those is the favorite to win. If one of them is other nominees, you have never too late from Elton John. Never too late. We can just cross that one out. It doesn't. You know, I don't think it's going to make many waves like a bird from Sing Sing. We both loved Sing Sing, but I don't know that it's not a song that's catching on in a way like I don't. I don't know if that breaks through. And then we have the journey from 6 to 8. Music by Diane Warren. This is our 16th nomination show with no wins. I say give it to her. This is a great up. I say give it to her. To people like if you if you don't award Amelia Perez like songs, no one's going to be mad about that because everyone hates this movie anyway. You can give Amelia Perez one award, you can give it one award, and that's not going to make anyone mad. There's just one, and it's going to win it. So you can give Zoe her Oscar and no one else is mad. It's happens. Power the dog. And it was supposed to win a bunch and ended up winning one. So my heart tells me it and Amelia Perez song will win again. I know, I'm just saying it'd be a really good opportunity to give Diane Warren the win. You know what, man, I like it, I like, I like, I like the smell of what you're stepping in. It doesn't smell like shit. It smells like blueberries. And you know what? I'm going to go with this idea, too, because I think you're right. I think this Amelia Perez thing is just going to die. I. Yeah, and if you have two of these things here, you can just cancel them out and give it to the one who's been nominated 16 times. I mean, why not? There's no better time to cancel to these options, because no one cares anymore. But my point exactly. But I have one complaint about and this is just an Amelia Perez thing, because I actually like the music in that movie. I didn't I'm not a Amelia Perez hater, but nor am I. So yeah, yeah, very interesting positions this year because it feels like we should hate that movie, but I, I just watch it went okay, I, I was laughing the entire time knowing that predicting the reaction that's going on right now, I thought it would be a fraction of what's going on right now. But yeah, it's true. But then it just it got it, frankly got to a sad place with these tweets and everything. But it did, it did. Yeah, it really did. But there's one song in that movie that I actually liked the song a lot, but I remember it being ridiculous because it's the scene where the kid is with the, you know, the, the, the ant, but it's really her father is really his father. And they're singing this very sweet song about how you smell like, you know, my father. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah. But if you start going through all the lyrics of that song, the kid just starts saying everything that a person could smell like. Like it's like everything from flowers to coffee to leather to tobacco to strawberries and I was like, yo, kid, make up your mind of what one smelled like. Pick one and sing about that. I'm like, how many smells could one person have smelled like? He smelled like fresh cocaine and fresh blood. It's like a cartel, right? So I don't know. I mean, but I mean, yeah, I, I think our logic here is pretty sound that just let a million press cancel themselves out and give it to Diane Warren. But again, I think, I don't know, I don't know, maybe that could happen. What's the song that's been winning though from Amelia Perez? Is it. I think it's Elmo. I think so too, but I, I mean like winning. What? Like there's nothing to win. No, but it's one song for like, it's like the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice. I don't care about those as much, but I can look it up, I guess. Well, but I'm just saying it's been winning, you know, bro, I mean, Elmo won the Critics Choice. Yeah. So that's so okay. So let's look for that one. Then we'll look for that one to win. Because I think me Camino might have been the one that Selena Gomez sang. And everyone's up in arms about her. Yeah, they really are that that was like the first wave of controversy. But as we said, that was, that was light work compared to this. Yeah. That's sure, sure was. Shit went. Yeah. So you're right, Elmo won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice. So yeah, I think we can expect that to be the frontrunner. You know what wasn't nominated? Compress repressed by Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross. Don't I swear to fucking God, I don't. That was just egregious like that. I don't care if you don't want to give it to him is the win. Because yes, they've already won the Oscar like a couple times now for their scores. But I mean, to just not nominate it. It's. What's that? That that that is I don't know if maybe they're thinking is that the score sounds too much like a soundtrack. This is like a good thing though, like I, I did too, because it is true. Like it's not like The Social Network. It's not like a tone, but it's a matter of fact. That's exactly what it is. It's a tone that fits with exactly the what that movie feels like and and, just. Oh, I will cut a bitch. This is bullshit. It's so dumb. Like. And, well, okay, so kind of where agreed lol for original song Be Nice and Diane Warren won. Let's go to original score. Our nominees which do not include challengers. No say no they don't. The brutalist Daniel Bloomberg conclave. Volcker. But it looks like Birdman, bird men Amelia Perez, Clement Duck Call and Camille Wicked, John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, the wild robot Chris Bowers. The reason why I read all those names is because there's usually at least one name that we know Alexandra Desplat. Like there's Holland Zimmer. Yeah, there's someone here that we know, and I'm not trying to be rude. I just don't know who any of these people are. So that's that is interesting that you're going to see like there's no you know, this can be like there can be some heavy hitters here, some big there's some big musicians. Thomas Newman, you know, no one like that is here. Did this Volker Birdman, did he also do, the quote unquote in the Western because they sound similar, like there's a very similar feel to that, to that score. Yes, he did, he did. So he has an Oscar okay. So he has an so he's gotten us. Yes. He beat our beloved Babylon for score for her car on the Western Front. Okay. So he has an Oscar. So conclave I mean, maybe not the brutalist score got some, like, recognition, but I could also see this being Amelia Perez or Wicked. I don't know, I don't really know where score sits. You're thinking wicked. I mean, no, I'm thinking I'm thinking, well, I mean, the Wild Robot did win this award for the Golden Globes or the Critics Choice. I forgot which one, but it did win a score award. But I think if I had, I think I would, I think I would repeat it with conclave, really, at least just for me. Yeah. Just because I, I, I mean, no, I would vote that would get my vote, but I'm saying who like, who do you think will win? I don't know who is going to win. I guess I would vote conclaves noting that this is a very weak category. It's insanely weak. Maybe they just knew challengers would win it, so they just put it out. So they I mean, maybe there's a chance. I mean, maybe, but that's a bad reason to do it. Yeah, I think I think it comes down to, I mean, I don't know, the, the, the brutalist is won this award somewhere along the way. I don't know if it's wanted. I just know it's been getting it's been you know, the score is very big. It's very the all that shit. So they could give it a second one but I could, I could see this being a part of the wicked wave in absence of a song being nominated, because all the songs are original to the play. So they couldn't be coming in so I could see the score going to wicked. Fuck that shit, man. It's weird. It's a technical. I know it's weird that the technical awards aren't. It's like I feel like we're usually jazzed about like, sound cinematography, like we're usually so like in a fun way. We get ourselves riled up. That is not the case this year, but the big awards are fun to track this year. They're not as open as they are other year, so it's a give and take score. Then what's going to win? You think conclave will win? I think conclave, I could see that. But yeah, that's I mean all those are kind of open and maybe not Amelia Perez but all the rest. All right. Best makeup and hairstyling a different man. Amelia Perez Nozpheratu the substance. Wicked. I think it would be moronic to not give this to the substance. Then it would just be dumb. I mean, I think in this situation though, I think you've got, I think you've actually got like because usually this, this category is pretty, it's, it's usually always a lock on something. Yeah. I do think you've got in Nosferatu the substance and wicked. I do think you have here three movies that could potentially win for all those reasons. Yeah, they could, but I think you're right. I think there's no way this doesn't go to the substance because I mean, it's like there's so many different like elements to that makeup and hair throughout it. It's not just like one character that gets it. It's the evolution of the rotting away of a human body into a monster tree. I love it, oh, I love it. So I can't remember when. Oh yeah, I won't put that on there. I was like, remember when you thought I was lying about Margaret Qualley? Fake boobies? Yeah. Actually, I did think you were lying about that. And then, you know, she. I looked it up. Do you know what she said about that? Her prosthetics and the substance. She said they fitted me with the rack of a lifetime. And I got a kick out of that on Oscar nomination day. I hadn't didn't really have an opinion on many of these. Now I've seen them all. Best international feature film. I'm still here from Brazil, from Brazil. The girl with the needle, Jesus Christ from Denmark. Oh my God, that movie, Jesus Christ. Wow. Intense. Like you don't. You won't unsee it. Tough one to recommend. Amelie Perez from France, The seed of the Sacred Fig, which is my fifth favorite film of the year from Germany, and Flo, my 10th favorite film of the year from Latvia. Flow is on Max. Guys can go check it out. Yes, it is HBO. It's on Max 85 minutes long. Great film. I think I'm still here. Is going to win this I do. I think that has the Amelie Perez would have won it without the controversy. It would have just walked away with it. I think second place is actually Flo, because I don't know if they're going to give animated feature to Flo, I would, I hope they do, but they could give that to the wild robot. See the sacred figs? Very dense, very intense. Girl with the needles is one of those foreign movies, and not a lot of people are going to see. And it's very, very intense. I'm Still here has other nominations. It has that major the prestige of the Best Actress nomination. Look for I'm Still Here and Flo might just be my wishful thinking. I'm going to say I'm still here is going to win this. Where's your head at, will? You don't think I said no no no no no no not anymore. I, I, I mean, the seat of the Sacred fig has gotten a lot of love throughout our awards season. Where I'm still here has only picked up, the actress award. Right. I'm still here. And flow is also gotten a lot. It has? Yeah, I'm still here as the prestige of being based on a very famous story in Brazil. It's true. I did not know. I was not aware of any of it. And there's I mean, you're you're making good points. I my favorite film on the list is Sacred Fig. I thought that movie was very impressive. I don't know how many voters are sitting through all three hours of that. Like maybe, maybe. But it was mostly a slow burn. Either picking an Oscar, they better watch it. I don't watch this shit, man. It's. I will cut a bitch. Who the fuck are you going to cut? I mean, I don't know, I'd. I don't want to for 10,000, but I do want them to know that this ain't right, though. I mean, you got it. I mean, okay, I get it. If you're Sundance and you have, like, thousands and thousands of movies, you should have all the nominees. You should. But that is not the way it works, man. That's not the way it works. Yes, yes, this industry is fucked, but. So what do you think? Where's your head on? What do you think's gonna win? I hear what you're saying about I'm still here. I mean, I don't know. This is all speculation. I think I'm going with the seed of the sacred fig because it's it's it's been riding a good wave throughout this award. Throughout the awards so far. So I'm thinking maybe we're just going to ride that train. It could happen. It could again, my favorite movie that's nominated there. So we'll see. Could happen this one just really quick give a little logline for The Girl with the needle. What's that about? The needle was like, the size of my forearm, and it goes the one place you don't want it. Where do you think it's going? Oh, yes. Yes. So it's about a woman whose husband has been deployed and she in a war. It's like 19, 19. She doesn't think he's coming back. And they're, you know, she has to mutilate herself at one point because she's pregnant and it it just it go and then the husband shows back up like it wasn't, it wasn't like a bad it's not a bad movie at all. But it was it's pretty intense. Pretty intense. When she, when she broke out that long, long, long needle and I went, this is what the girl with the needle means. Man, you know what I mean? It's Denmark, and they just don't fuck around over there and never do. What can I say? Girl with the needle? Yeah, good luck with that one. I watch it on good old Hulu. They're available for free on Hulu, so good luck. This next one. Yeah, this is a little tough. Here we go, baby. Best film editing Honora Sean Baker the brutalist conclave. Amelia Perez, wicked. This is tough, I think. I think this is a three way. What do you think this is a three way? A triple threat between a Nora conclave and wicked? I think it's between conclave and wicked. We could see a mini conclave wave as well. Like it could walk away with 3 or 4. That's what it's going to be. So interesting to see all how all these get split. Wicked was not well edited to me, but as we know from Bohemian Rhapsody, that no longer I mean, that was kind of a fluke. Like this award is usually taken seriously. And when you look up the previous winners, you're like, okay, that makes sense. That makes sense. I did nothing. Wicked was well edited at all. There's no sweat these musicals. One of the reasons I have such trouble with contemporary musicals, because in the classic ones and the Golden Age ones, that it was like 2 or 3 shots for an entire musical number. So you saw all the steps play out. Now this is cut like like a music video, an MTV music video, cut, cut, cut, cut. So you never know where to look. And it's it's just, you know, when you're watching it on stage, there's no cuts. You're watching it all take place before you, which is one of the reasons why musicals and just live theater is so damn cool. But with all this cutting, I mean, I don't know, but then conclave, like, did conclave make enough of a splash to even win Oscars? I don't know. And Nora here seems like the obvious one to us. But I mean, come on now there is an editing guild. They haven't awarded their winner yet. The the nominees were weird, but it may give us some insight here. Here are the nominees for the Editing Guild civil War Conclave, Dune part two Amelia Perez and Furiosa. So the only crossover there is conclave and Amelia Perez. And I don't think Amelia Perez is winning. So I think we're we may be looking at conclave here, but was that movie, like, well edited? I mean, I guess it was well written, but then I guess the edit but you still was like, yeah, but everything about that movie was she was okay, good up. It was good. But I don't need it to win scores. I don't need it to win editing. I don't need it to win a screenplay award, but it may win all of those, I don't know, I mean, maybe that's the wave. That's what I missed. Production design exactly for. Yeah, it gets editing. Costumes could happen. People love the costumes. A costume, I mean, we'll get to it. We will, I, but I'm going. I'm going to Nora. Oh, wow. Oh, I love it. Yeah. Fuck it. That would. Oh, God, that would be great. If. I mean, that would be a good indicator of where it's headed, perhaps, I don't know, but if it does that and Sean Baker gets up there, it's going to be like, well, directors have won this award before. Alfonso Cuaron won it before. So it can happen. Yeah, I don't know. We're going to see I'm I'm kind of expecting, you know, if an award doesn't win to see some wicked conclaves wins in these smaller categories, well then maybe it would, it would it would behoove a Nora to not win this. Because if you because I would personally rather see Sean Baker win. Director. Same or picture same. He's nominated four times. He could win. Exactly. Yeah. Yeah. That's crazy. That'd be so cool. But I feel like I feel like if you're the academy and you're going that direction, you split it up a little bit, then I agree. I agree. So I guess my heart is with the conclave, but I also have not. Yeah, a lot of these smaller categories. I'm just thinking about kind of right now for the first time I've done some research, but not not a ton. All right. I've seen I was wrong. It's hard man. This is a tricky one. Best documentary short I have now seen four of these. Death by numbers. The first nominee is the only one I haven't seen. And it's about. It's about a school shooting survivor confronting her own trauma. So that's the only one I haven't seen. It's only one that's not easily available to see. And that could very well win just because of the subject matter. I am ready, warden is a conversation with a guy before he's put to death on death row. Very. You know, and it was it was intense. Yeah. Incident is extremely difficult to watch. It is, a a police officer murdering a black person in the streets. And you see it all play out through body cam footage and, different surveillance footage. And it ain't easy in any to watch. Even some people. The word I use murdering is an editorial because he wasn't found guilty as shit. But, imagine what it was like before they had to wear cameras. Instruments of beating hearts is another nominee. And the only girl in the orchestra. The only girl in the orchestra, I believe, is on Netflix. It's one of them. It's about someone performing in a, you know, an orchestra. And it being that instruments of of a beating heart. I believe that was the one set in China where you're seeing, they're like these really, really young kids, like second graders are getting ready to preparing to perform ode to Joy. And, you know, let's say it's only like 23 minutes. You're seeing them. I mean, they're young. There's this one cymbal player, cute little girl, just a symbol player. I mean, she's like second grade. She can't really get the timing down. This fucking teacher, it's like, does it yell? But he will look at her and he's like, we can't do the song correctly if you don't. If you don't match your beats, like the song isn't going to work, you're ruining it for everyone. Just constantly putting this tiny girl down, making her sob it till she gets it. I was watching it going, God damn, this teacher's ruthless like ruthless. So did she get to based on? Yeah, she gets it eventually. And then it's a whole thing of like, she gets it and he comes over. And I had to be sorry to be hard on you. And she's crying. And so it's that whole thing, you know? Yeah. But, I would vote for incident to win. I don't think it will. Sounds like it'll be death by numbers, but, I am ready. Warden and incident are both available to fine. Easily. And watch incident with caution. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Watch it right after this, will you? Documentary feature? I've done some research. Seen two of these. Now we have black box diaries. No other land. Porcelain war. Soundtrack to a coup de tar and sugar cane. Sugar cane to me, was telling a similar ish story to Nickel Boys, but it did it in a much more effective way. It's a very difficult film to watch. It's on Hulu, I recommend it. My favorite of this that I've seen is Black Box Diaries, which is about a woman in Japan who is drugged and raped one night by a well known journalist, like a veteran journalist. And she was a journalist, so she was a subordinate. And she just it's very, very hard. I think everywhere I know it is in America, but it seems very hard in Japan as well to actually get people convicted of that crime. And it is, I loved it. It was an amazing documentary. It's a boots on the ground thing. She's recording a lot of it herself, and you're herself, and you're just on this journey with her of fighting and fighting, and it leads to an emotional catharsis that just had me in tears, had her in tears, had me in tears. And it's a lot of really, really, really, terribly shitty human beings out there that are just like terrible people. And there are, as this documentary reminds us, if you look in the right places, some people, men, women, whomever of genuine empathy and goodness in their hearts who do not give a fuck about corporate status, about anything, status of any kind, and will do the right thing because it is the right thing to do. That's what this doc was about. I loved it, it is not easy. It is. You don't see anything, but there are descriptions of stuff and it's yeah, it's not easy, but I really, really liked it. This is the kind of movie that I mean, I gave it five stars on Letterboxd. I told you it was an A+ for me. This is what I want to be nominated, be nominated and win. Typically, movies with a much more overt political message, which I believe is no other land. This year. I have not seen that it's in one theater in the Washington, DC area. It sounds like something like that might win or porcelain war, I don't know, but as it were, just talking about movies. Black Box Diaries is a grade A documentary recommendation for me. So double that feature up with that an incident and you're looking at a you're looking at a good Monday night black Box Diaries incident, sugar cane. You just want to watch them. Girl with the needle. Let's not forget that please. You just want to watch them all in a row. Yeah. This is the. What are you watching hit list of Oscar trauma this year. So I'm telling you, though, folks, like, a lot of these movies are easy to find. Like, a lot of them are online for free. I like that soundtrack to a Cuda. It's how you can rent. It's like three hours long. It's like, 250, so I would want to see it, but it's just hard to track down no other land. You can only see it in like one theater. That one. The, Film Independent Spirit Award. Yeah. This documentary. Yeah, yeah. And I think it sounds, pretty current politically. So again, another one to look out for. Any comments on any of those you think you'll watch any of them? I mean, it's it's hard to ignore whenever you give something an A-plus review. So, of all of these, like, that would be the one that I would, I would I would actually, it sounds like it's really tough to watch, but I mean, at the end of the day, if you're just talking about quality in, in these types of categories, then I don't want to miss out on this, you know, type thing. Costume design, going back to, I don't know, conclave versus wicked, maybe our nominees are, a complete unknown conclave. Gladiator two got Anam Nozpheratu and wicked. I think this one wicked for sure. Really? For sure. Yeah, I'm not for sure. I can see conclave. People like the costumes. I don't know, they like them. Nozpheratu the costumes in that, but, I mean, wicked, it's all about. I guess you're right. Yeah, it really, I mean, it really is. And there's so many of them, man. Your final ballot, like you, you're like soft selling wicked for. You have 5 or 6 wins here. Haven't even seen the movie, right. Yeah, I don't matter. I don't matter at all. Again, I guarantee some of these people haven't either who are voting for them. I know exactly as I'm like, there is a costume design guild, but it makes it damn near impossible to predict this winner because they have three awards every year. Here are the award winners this year. Best contemporary film costumes conclave. Best period film and costumes Nozpheratu. Best science fantasy film costumes. Wicked. So I think you're looking at one of those three, but I don't know if this is going to split to where all these that we're speculating go to wicked or all these go to conclave. I don't know, I'm wondering if you're thinking Nosferatu is going to be empty handed. We'll probably see with this next one here. Let's talk about Best cinematography. You know, not let's let's not only just talk about Best Cinematography, but let's talk about the what are you watching Oscar award. This is our this is the award that we represent. And quite frankly, I think Nosferatu I think that I think I think this is an absolute win for it and like, but salute. Wow. But if, if with all of these other nominations that are here, my second vote goes to Dune. Yeah, I love the cinematography of Dune. Let me do the nominees real quick. The Brutalist Dune part two Amelia Perez Maria shot by Ed Lockman, a very well respected DP and Nozpheratu. I honed in on Maria there because, the ASC awards the best cinematography like the guild awards. They gave this to Ed Lockman for Maria. Now not always. Yeah. I bring up the guilds and something like this. Like how many people could be voting on that award? I don't know how many people are in that killed, but you would take that population and put it in with the Oscar, the other Oscar voters. So that's why it can get, you see, like, wow, best cinematography Ed Lockman. It's like, well, yeah, because there were 200 cinematographers voting on this when you have actors and sound people also voting on this, that's where it could go to Nosferatu. So I don't think that means I do not think that means Maria will win. I think this is I I'm actually right there with you. I think Nozpheratu is going to take this and Dune would be in second place that that's what that's what I would think. But I, I'm, I'm fairly like I feel it in I feel it in my balls. Nosferatu is winning this. Well, then if you feel it, there must be true. Good. Alienating over female female listeners. I can just hear it there. It's like Jesus. It's finally turned into a bro pod. I will never let it turn. It will. Bro pod people. Don't worry. Animated dude. You, Lloyd C Lawrence I just found some. Sounds so much better. See? Does it loins than balls? Yeah, I guess it's true. All right. I feel it in my loins. Best. Damn it. Feature flow. Let it win, baby. God, I hope so. Inside out to the biggest financial moneymaker of 2024. Memoir of a snail Wallace and Gromit. Vengeance Most foul, which I watched on Netflix. And The Wild Robot. It's going to be a bummer for me. If it's the Wild Robot, it's the bigger studio movie with the big voices and I, you know, I get it. It's just so traditional to win this, give it to flow. Like, why else does this category exist if we're not going to give it to these tiny, worthy movies occasionally? So I don't know. My heart wants to say flow that they're going to do the right thing, but The Wild Robot is honestly a much more conventional and likely choice. I don't know the what happens if flow wins Best international feature. You think it would win but If it somehow wins international feature, first of all that would be cool as shit because I don't it has more a more likely chance to win animated because there's nothing like foreign about it. There's no dialog. So it's not like you're ever reading subtitles. The whole it was just it was made in Latvia. That's what the filmmakers from Latvia, that's where they made it. So that's why I don't know if it wins that. Because if you're watching all for all five movies for Best International Feature Film, the one that seems the least foreign is flow, because there's nothing about it that makes it seem foreign, but it definitely seems animated along with other along with those other nominees. So there's no confusing that. But I I'm really hoping they do flow here. He's been great on Twitter. He's been killing against Gen Z, the director. He's just a great hang. He at the indie spirits. Did he say, yeah. Whenever we lose, we go get ice cream. So no ice cream tonight. And he's been saying that on Twitter like no ice cream tonight. I don't it's just it's funny. It's a good narrative. Give it that. And not I don't even know what made The Wild Robot was, you know, one of the studios that already has probably 3 or 4 of these animated feature Oscars. So that's my selling point for flow, but I don't know if it wins. I do not know. I hope so, needed to. I'd be interested for you to watch it. It's I don't know, it's good. No, it's. Now that it's on Max, I will absolutely get it. I'll watch it before, this weekend. We good talk about Dan will be impressed. Oh, I don't give a shit about Dan being impressed. Thunder rile you up. God, I got to punch through like a fucking cough. We got two big ones left. The big eight. All right, here we go. Top eight. We're going to do, the supporting first because they're kind of easy to support. Best supporting actress Monica barbaro A complete unknown Ariana Grande de wicked, Felicity Jones, the brutalist Isabella Rossellini conclave Zoe Saldana will win this for Amelia Perez, I am certain I agree, and she's going to give a good speech and she's, you know, no, it'll be good and just fight and she deserves it. I agree, I really enjoyed her in that movie. I thought she was amazing. So if you were an Academy member though, and you were filling out a ballot, who would you vote for not to win? Like, who would you want to vote for? Oh, Zoe. Oh, really? Not see my would be Monica. I thought she was great. I loved her that. No, I believe me, I, I, I am the complete unknown fan. Yes. This podcast I know you liked it, but it didn't even make your top ten. So what is this shit made yours? It sure did. But, no. Of all of these nominees, I thought Zoe Saldana, has rightfully swept this entire category. As much as I love Monica in this, and I really do. But, Zoe, I mean, sometimes I kind of look at something as I'm watching an actor do it, and I'm like, I don't know how you do that. Yeah, yeah. Her musical performance in that movie is like, in a whole different world, because, like, even if I'm watching something where I'm watching a musical performance, like, as even though I don't like musicals, I've seen them, I've, I've witnessed them. I've, I've take I've taken them in. I've received them. The hills are alive with the sound of music. They are. That's what they say. And, you know, you see these types of things. But what I really dug about Amelia Perez was that the, the choreography of all of it was done in a very, traditional blocking way of a, of a movie. It wasn't designed to, like, take up all this space. So when she's climbing up on all these tables and doing these dances, it just looks like an actor who's in complete control of their instrument. Yeah, that's just in a rhythm, in a beat. She's on point with everything and the emotion of which she is doing all of this, it just I watch it all and then I'm like, she's on fire. She is literally on fire. She's so good. Yeah, I agree, there's for both of the, assumed winners of the supporting categories. There's a case to be made that they're actually giving lead performances, which I do think they are. That seems to have helped both of their chances. Yeah, sometimes it hurts their chances, but it's Helton I think. Yeah I think they're going to win. And that's a good point about her. I didn't even know. I've gone back and research it now. And I know she's been able to sing and dance, but I didn't know so we could sing and dance when I sat down for that movie. So I was like, you spent the first part going, oh, is this dubbed like, is she even singing? And then I'm going, yeah. It's like her voice. I didn't even know she could speak Spanish. I mean, she's got the last name, but I don't I didn't know, I just didn't know. And it's great. And I've always really, really liked her. I just, I love, Lioness on Paramount. I fucking love that show. She's such a badass. And I've. Yeah, I've always liked her. Hey, one of my favorite acting moments in all of cinema involves her. Which one? Which part of avatar? You should not be here. That part. Oh. Was it in, Columbiana? No, it was in the, In this? No, the Scott Cooper, out of the furnace. Yeah. Her and Christian Bale. Yeah. The scene on the bridge. Yeah. That's one of my favorite acting moments I've ever seen on camera. And and it's a great scene. And she's, she's in it. I need to. Yeah. I only saw the movie once. Q&A with, Cooper. I love that flick. After I know I did, too. It's really good. Okay. But. Yeah. Zoe, congrats. You're Zoe, and, you beat the controversy. If anything, you deserve it. The way you've handled this whole thing with grace and having to win awards and. Oh, God, what are you going to say? Angie Hill's it. Well, all right, let's move. Supporting actor. You're, Boris off as Igor the warrior in Nora. Kieran Culkin in a real pain. Edward Norton in a complete unknown. Guy Pearce, the brutalist Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice. No one has won any award for Best Supporting actor this Oscar race except Kieran Culkin. I don't know why that would change now. I don't think it will. Though I gotta say, anyone? One of these would be a good winner though. Yeah. Like, all of these performances I think are unbelievably solid. But, yeah, I just don't see that. And why would you at this point? Yeah, there's no reason to suspect it. It is. Your nomination is great. I speculated it's a nod that he would get nominated. That's awesome. Like that nomination is to win. It's so cool. They've been having the best time, all of them on the press when they were introducing a another last night and the Screen Actors Guild, and the guy was just reading every single word of the teleprompter. You read, he finishes and he goes, Mikey! Because it was hard to speak. And then they just all play it so well. Like you could tell, they've been having so much fun. It just having a great time. Well, it's all their first time ever doing anything like this to. And you feel that. Yeah, it's it's very sweet. Karen was so good at the Spirit Awards. He was such a good sport. Like being wheeled out on that cart. Oh, I love him. I love him so much. But yeah, Kieran Culkin is going to win this. And that is going to be that he's going to give another trademark weird speech and talk about, I don't know, bathroom attendant or whatever pops into his head this time. And that's just yeah, it's going to hey, wait, is it's better than 90% of everyone else's speeches. Yeah. I mean, they're always I appreciate that. They're always just off the cuff. And he seems he seems as confused as some of the rest of us are of it would be fascinating to talk about why this happens, because I don't know. I don't know why the locks happen. I don't know, we get at least one every year. Divine Joy Randolph. No one else mentioned anyone for supporting actress last year. She won everything. I think her performance is fine. And the holdovers, I don't know if that's going to like, live the test of time and people are going to be talking about that performance 20 years from now. Not that doesn't have to be the case for every Oscar winning performance, but the lock I am more concerned with the lock. How how does it get decided so early on? Like Kurt Culkin just won one Golden Globe and then everyone went, okay, it's him. He's going to win everything. And it was never, I don't know, it's just so weird to me. It's very strange, but I, I remember being in the theater after I came out of a real pain. And I've got my own little, things with that movie, but I was like, Kieran Culkin is going to win everything he's nominated. Wow, wow. But I didn't know. I just had that feeling. So I don't know where the lock comes from. And I'm not know if that's necessarily supportive in in this, but I just remember I was like there's like, like how does he not win for everything that was here? But it would be so interesting if he was actually in the bit less best lead category. Would he be winning? Would this be a lock? I it might be I don't know. This is very interesting. Right. This is the argument that I have because this goes both ways to like Lily Gladstone last year, if she would have run herself in supporting, which some people thought she was, she would have won that easily. But she ran as lead. And people are somewhere like, never. Michelle Williams for The Fabelmans, that's a supporting performance. They nominated her for lead and I'm like, supporting was kind of weak that year. You probably you might have been able to win that. So this category fraud that happens sometimes. Yeah. What would he be up there competing with Brody and Salome. Maybe. Or maybe yeah. People would go, oh that should be in supporting like there are some performances that are right on the line like this, and no one can ever agree on them. But I would like to see that the biggest one that I always bring up is Viola Davis in Fences. She was predicted to win for the help. There was a surprise that she lost to Meryl Streep for the Iron Lady, so the next time she comes back around on this circuit, she does not put herself up for lead of fences, which she is. She's in the movie more than Denzel, like she's the lead of that film. She puts herself up for supporting, walks away easily. Would she have won lead that year, beating Emma Stone and La La Land? I don't know. That's so it goes. It's all this stuff. Like I actually think Viola Davis could have. I think she could have come pretty close. And we talked about that and then if she did that left supporting actress open. Guess who wins Michelle Williams Manchester by the sea you know, really harkens back to 2007, in the Best Supporting Actress category. It was Best actress I feel that. Who got nominated best actress? Like I said that the that woman, Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, Christie really like that. And it tipped me up to tip of my tongue really quick though. I ran out this Karen thing. I think it's hilarious that there's a law about this movie that has to do with him is because, like, he wasn't going to take the movie. Yeah, I'm hearing all of these stories from either Emma Stone or when he even thanked in the SAG Awards for, his sister and basically like, like he just everyone was just sort of like, get on the plane and again, like, because if you went on the plane, he was going to do the movie. Yeah. And it seemed like it was like everyone was like conspiring just to get this man on a plane to take a movie that he didn't care about taking. And then he does it doesn't really do any preparation. We're not preparation necessarily, but it sounds like he just showed up and started filming. That is what it sounds like. And now he's one and he's going to become an Oscar winner because of it. It's just it's just very fascinating how this all came to be from this sort of very compel and captivating attitude that Kieran Culkin has. Yeah, it it really sounds like from everything Eisenberg says, that he, Culkin really behaved like a feral animal. And he there was no separation between Culkin and that character. That's just how he was acting. And then he was unable to establish continuity, take after take because he couldn't even remember what he said. I don't know if he was following the script or just going off on his own tangents, but they would just have to try to do it as many times and then hope that they could find it in editing. So very strange performance to like to just be a lock for Oscars, where there seems to be no technique, willfully ignoring technique, willfully ignoring preparation. Where we have Timmy going, I did, I, I worked on this for five years and all this for five years. I want to be one of the greats. Kieran Culkin is like, I need to go to the bathroom. Like, can I get off the stage like it's, I don't want to be good. I don't want to be great. I don't want to be grand. I just want to hang out with my daughter and my wife. Can I go? Yeah. So, yeah, it. Yes. It's just it's wild stuff. But I'm here for. Yeah. Yeah. I think it's great. I mean, at the end of the day, it's his performance is just utterly alive. So, you know you can throw technique out of the window if you're going to make people feel like that. Yeah, absolutely. All right. The big award. Let's jump to it. Best actor there we go. Is the one that is the most open. We have Cynthia Erivo for wicked. Very interestingly absent from any discussion of winning. Obviously she's been at the forefront of the press. She's so absent that I think they're going to be saving her for next year. I think this campaign will come with the sequel, so pay attention to her. She but she is out of this running. Carlos Sofia Gascon, Familia Perez I think the biggest question for her regarding this evening is if she will show up. She said she would not show, she would not be showing up to the Sags, which she didn't, but that she would show up to the Oscars. Do your thing, I don't know. Are there jokes made about it? Is Conan's got to say some. We will see Mikey Madison for Nora Demi Moore, the substance Fernanda Taurus I'm still here. Mikey Madison has won the BAFTA and the indie spirit. Demi Moore has won Golden Globe for Comedy Critics Choice and SAG. Last night, Fernanda Torres won the Golden Globe for drama. I do think those three Madison, Moore and Taurus, it could go to either of them. I wouldn't be surprised. I always thought Moore would win the SAG, and it just confirmed to me that I do think she wins this now. It's for the career. It's a lot. It's not. It is absolutely not a lark. Best actress is not a lock, not into a fucking word he says. If Fernanda Taurus sweeps in. Very similar to Marion Couture in 2007 with Julie Christie, I won't be surprised. You sound like you're just closing yourself off to it, but I won't be surprised. And then if Mikey ends up taking it, that is going to be a good indicator of where picture and director could go. But I think more. It's a lock. I thought you said this was the most interesting race, because it was the hardest to call. I said that, yeah, you said it like an hour ago. You said that's what makes it so fun. You said it was between Mad Mikey and Moore. And then that's when I said, I think this horror script kind of come in, but if. Well. So you. Yeah. He's saying, all right. He's confident that Moore is a lock. I am not that confident. I will not be surprised if Mikey or Fernanda suite comes in here and takes it. I would love it. I mean, I love Demi Moore, I and I loved her in the substance, but I, and I think, I mean and don't get me wrong, I mean, Nora, that's our that's our movie. If if Mikey wins this, I will be over the moon thrilled. But I feel like she's young. I feel like she's got a great career, and I think, like, that's going to pay off for her down the road where this is a this is really a case where I actually support the career win because like, you know, for like I remember we had this conversation last year, when it came to Paul Giamatti and Brendan Fraser and oh, no, no, no Brendan Fraser, no, it was Paul Giamatti. And it was, oh, oh, you're talking for actor knows Giamatti and Killian Murphy. And then it was Brendan Fraser Austin Butler. Yeah. And Austin Butler. So this is the Paul Giamatti one where it's like okay do you give this to him for the career. But you know, you're up against a performance with Killian where it's sort of like, okay, that's undeniable. Like we like that. That's just like it's out of this world. Good. Mikey's that. I believe that's that. But I think Demi Moore, she does such a good job in the substance where it's also like, Paul Giamatti could come back here and do this again. He's like, refines like it's like like whatever movie they're in. There's still a little bit more time. But Demi Moore, she's having a career resurgence. But I think an Oscar win for her will actually make that resurgence mean even more with the movies she's going to be doing later. I just feel like like why not. Yeah. Yeah. This category typically goes to the young Aunjanue who kind of came out of nowhere or it's a career win. So like Brie Larson for room, not a lot of people had heard of her. She's one of the young ones. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Yeah, even Emma Stone, La La Land people had heard of. She's Coming, coming up. But then it pivots to women of an older generation. These career wins, like Frances McDormand, winning for Three Billboards, wasn't a career win, but her winning for Nomadland was like, they're just doing that. But then you have, Olivia Colman, which came out of nowhere. Renée Zellweger, Jessica Chastain, Michelle Yeoh, Emma Stone again, that was a huge surprise to me last year. So yeah, it's more putting your head inside the mind of the Oscar voter. Do you want to give it to the young one that you and I have heard of, Mikey Madison? A lot of people have not before. Nora. Or do you give it to someone that everyone has heard of that has never been nominated? That you know, that we all know deserves this. And it is for the career. And then Fernando Torres is not a lot of people know her, but that this would not be a career win. This is a performance win like that. Performance stands on its own. It's it's good. But, yeah. Noting all that, I think Miss Elizabeth Sparkle from the substance could win here. And I'm not going to be mad. I never have never, ever gotten it in my heart or head that Mikey could win this. That's why I was thrilled to see her win a BAFTA, win the indie spirit and give very nice speeches. But I never had her in consideration to win this. But what if she does? Then I'll slip the fuck out. Then you will see. Yeah, a reaction of me of just being like, Holy shit. And then I'll just get more nervous about picture and director, you know? Could it happen? What's. Yeah, yeah. What's coming, what's coming. All right, best actor. We got a best actor. We have a fresh take on the race because of last night. Adrien Brody, the brutalist Timothy Shalom, a complete unknown Colman Domingo. Sing sing, hooray! Finds conclave, Sebastian Stan, the apprentice. No one is talked. It just it's really crazy to me that in lieu of like, the brutalist being, it got some controversy for it. It was the movie was not as universally well-liked as people thought it was going to be. He's come away okay. But then the AI stuff came out and it's like, does that matter to people? But he's won almost everything the Golden Globe, Drama Critics Choice, BAFTA, he's been taken, you know, cleaning up. I've been saying I really don't think the brutal is to win anything else. If it wins something, it could win this. And that's like the Zoe thing. I don't think anyone's going to be really mad about it if Adrien Brody wins. I know, and I agree. I mean, obviously, I do believe Timothee Salame like, I think that that's the best performance in this category. But I liked Adrien Brody in the brutalist. Yeah. And I think if he, if he was to win this, I wouldn't be upset with that win because he does a great job. I honestly like, I mean, outside of maybe Sebastian Stan here, if any of these guys won, I wouldn't be upset. I would love it if Colman Domingo won. To be honest, that's what I was going to say. It's very interesting to me that I always thought we always knew Bob Dylan. Timmy was going to be in the running like he's solid. The movie's solid, not controversial. Every it's all good. Like it's a good movie, good Oscar movie. Sing sing is just that guy movie got completely screwed. That is such a well-done movie. It's hard. Isn't such the right place? Is the distribution on that A24? They do this sometimes. It did it to my beloved waves that completely screwed the distribution of that movie, and it was in like two theaters and never played anywhere. I'm just stunned that he is not more in the running or talking about these career wins. Where did Ray fines go? Yeah, if we're talking about college, maybe winning some Oscars, why? Never mentioned in anything like not even for the BAFTA. Like I it's just I don't know. This Sebastian Stan nomination was a huge surprise because he is playing Donald Trump. So that was a big surprise that he even got nominated. But will it be Brody who as it stands, is currently the Best Young Actor winner ever, winning for The Pianist in 2002? Or will it be Timothee Chalamet who, if he wins for playing Bob Dylan, will now become the youngest best actor winner ever? Does that stat matter to voters? Do they even know about it? Do you want to know one? What what what would make Timmy's step to greatness and Oscar mean even more? Being the first the youngest person to ever win the Oscar, he gets to have that. He's going to get up there and be like, I know people don't normally say this, but the fact that I'm the youngest one to win this, I'm on my way to greatness. Daniel Day-Lewis. Fuck you two more. I'm coming for you. Yeah, that's what he's going to say. And he's going to leave. If he says Stanley Lewis, fuck you. Honestly, I wish, I mean, I would laugh my ass off. I'd be like, well, I would laugh so hard talking about balls. That'd be balls right there. That was so funny. I yeah. What do you think here. Don't think Shalamar is going to win. Yeah, I really don't. I, I think he's too young, I don't, and I don't see any reason why him and Mangal don't do more of these. And the same what you just said about Mikey, how even though she's never been nominated, how she's deaf, she could absolutely be back here. He's already been nominated a few times, but we could also be in another Leo situation where it's the young guy who gets nominated all the time when he's younger and then like, really has to go and break his back to win that award. You know? Leo never. Leo played a number of real life people and did not win Oscars for those so. But this seems to be the fate of this category. Almost every year that we have someone nominated against someone playing a real life musician, do they go to musician? Do they give it to Rami Malik? They didn't give it to Elvis. Do they give it to Bob Dylan? You know, I, I, I don't know, I'm not going to be surprised. I actually will be a little surprised if Shalamar wins just because of that stat that these stats for Oscar people tend to mean a lot. I don't know if they mean a lot to voters, but for him to be the youngest, that that is a statement. And it's kind of it's this weird, poetic Oscar thing that he would be beating his fellow nominee, who Adrien Brody winning for The Pianist is one of my favorite Oscar wins ever, but I just don't see Shalamar winning. I don't know if they do it or I'm overthinking it and it will be him. I'm having a lot of trouble envisioning Brody getting on that stage for the second time, too. For this movie, I don't know. Brody looked a little distraught last night during Timmy's SAG speech. He looked a little shocked. I think he thought he was going to take it, so I don't know. Well, I mean, it's hard to not think that if you're on this circuit and you've been winning every single award and then, you know, you lose the SAG Awards. Yeah, the big one, I mean, for for that, for that genre, for acting, you know, that's, that's that's what they are. Yeah. You know, I just bruh I mean, it's tough. And even split this is a Brody Shalamar split. So the reason why Brody won before is because it was the Daniel Day-Lewis gangs in New York. Jack Nicholson about Schmidt split is the only two people anyone was talking about. The only two people who had won any precursor awards. I firmly believe they canceled themselves out. They got a lot of votes. And you had Adrien Brody slip in there and win it. That does not happen often. I, I think I can make the argument that happened with Olivia Colman that Lady Gaga and Glenn Close split some of the votes. It allows Olivia Colman to come in. If that happens here. This just refines. Come in. It could be Colman. What if that's a reset? It's Covid and like whoever's over this envelope just gets this huge smile and says it's Colbert the big. And you're like, yes, but I think two I mean, it'll be I know it, but he's so good. He is he's great in it, but I, I this may be a last minute decision for me. Brody or salami, I don't know, the good thing, I suppose here is that no matter who wins, there's reasons to be happy for whoever wins here. Yes, and the same could be said for actress. That's why I'm not going to mind who wins that. But yeah, whoever wins. Yeah. I'm like, I understand why Brody won. I understand why Shalom won for the performance and for Oscar politics. I get it. These are not going to be, like, out. Like, what the hell? What are you talking about? So yeah, they would make sense. Yeah. Original screenplay for left Nora nominees. The beloved Nora. Yeah. The brutalist a real pain. September 5th. The substance. Hear me out. I'm thinking a real pain. I'm really being drawn that way. He has been knocked now, Sean Baker won the WGA for this WGA are not good one to ones because so much can't be nominated. For instance, Nicole Boyes won the adapted screenplay w gar, but conclave wasn't even nominated because there's very, very odd rules. So a Nora did win for but a real pain. It's just been winning a lot of screenplay awards, and we know it's already going to win one award. It's already going to win supporting actor. So the do they check both those boxes? I could also see this very easily going to the substance. And I'm not kidding substance because that is also that's where I think it's really okay. Cool. Because that is also going to win potentially that could win actress as well. And you know, do they give her a Best Screenplay win as well. Because I don't think she's going to win. Director. That is where before the gas came out I was actually thinking I think it's going to be the substance, but a Nora a real pain for the substance. I could see it. I that's what I think, too. Yeah. I think my vote on the day will be going to the substance for this. Yeah, that it could happen. I mean, it could definitely, definitely happen if that. Damn. We haven't picked a Nora for anything yet to to win. But I know so. But that's why. Because it's going to win too. But that would be went to win. But that doesn't happen though. A movie doesn't win. Picture director and just win that. It always win something else. Always that that that I promise you will not happen if Nora's if it wins two awards it's only two awards will not be picture and director. That's never happened before ever a movies one picture and then play that's happened like spotlight did that but just picture and director and no other Oscar that just wouldn't even make sense. It'd be like, well then what? What the hell did you award it for? So that is what makes this whole night very nerve wracking for me. I said I wasn't going to be nervous, I'm going to be a wreck because but I but I will not be upset in any way at the end of the night because I have it in my head that I don't know if any of this goes in Nora's way, but original. Okay, let's move on to adapted for you. It's picture director, adapted screenplay. It's a lock, I don't know, a complete unknown conclave. Amelia Perez. Nicole. Boys sing saying sounds like we both in conclave is going to walk away with this. Conclave is walking away. Yeah, I think this will be the with everybody saying I think this will be its biggest award. I. Yeah. Again. Nicole boys won WGA but conclave wasn't nominated. Yeah. So that's where that stands okay. Best director here a Nora Sean Baker, the brutalist Brady core bay a complete unknown James Mangold, Amelia Perez, Jake Godard the substance Callie fair get which I know I'm saying forget Faj. I don't know, man. Callie I am being told and I am hearing that this is for some God forsaken reason, a race between Sean Baker and Brady Core Bay. I have no idea why that is the case, but when I'm looking at the nominees, I don't think the brutalist wins this. For the love of God, I don't think that happens. So what else gives Sean Baker competition? Where's the competition? The substance? Maybe screenplay would be a big win for that. It's not out of possibility, but it's a weird fucking movie to win Best Director. Like, it's really weird, really out there because of the guilds, the PGA, the DGA. But so is a Nora. Not like the substance though now like, yeah, yeah, yeah, I think. I think this may go to Sean Baker. I guess that's who I'm going to. I cannot tell you how weird it is for me to say this, because the thing is, folks, the only thing stepping in the way of this night, the main thing I should say, stepping in the way of the Oscar night is my own arrogance. Allow me to explain briefly. Oh, yes, admitted. Absolutely. Never in my life, never in my movie obsessed life has my favorite movie of the year won Best Picture. It has never happened. My favorite movie of the year is rarely nominated for Best Picture. Somehow that happened last year with a walk off. It was a sweep. Everyone told me it was going to happen. I kind of thought picture and director would go that way. I definitely didn't think he would win actor. But it happened and I'm like, that was weird. My favorite movie of the year was The FrontRunner and then it won. There's no it isn't humanly possible in my medium depressed brain to assume that my favorite movie two years in a row is going to win Best Picture. Nothing like that. I've never even thought that was a possibility. So for that to happen would be the Oscars would impress me in such a way that I didn't think was possible. And my own arrogance is preventing me from believing that. But I don't know what wins. Director, I don't really know what wins picture. Here are Best Picture nominees a Nora, the Brutalist A complete unknown conclave. Dune part two Amelia Perez I'm still here, nickel boys. The substance. Wicked. Honestly, before I was thinking, could this be a complete unknown verse conclave? Does wicked somehow sneak in there? And now we're just left with a Nora by tiny little studio neon that's won the PGA won the DGA. Is this going to be in a Nora picture director, based on the way that everything's been going? And I have been watching everything, I'll have, you know. Good. I don't think that this was how this. If you were to have this, like, the road to WrestleMania always comes back to wrestling. Yeah, exactly. Yep. This is exactly what it's like. Yeah. You know, back in January when these nominations came out, I think it was a Nora that was like, oh, that's sweet that it got nominated. Yep. I, I remember Sean Baker as being the director. It was one of those things where it's like, oh, he got the nom. That's so good. We were excited about the nominees. Yes. Due to circumstances that have taken place, like the road to WrestleMania, is the Rock going to be involved? Who is, you know, is he not today? No. No one could have predicted Amelia Perez to completely have 13 nominations and fall away from the whole entire thing. The brutalist. Slowly everyone realizes, well, hopefully everyone realizes not the best. And, then you get the I controversy. But I think that really only applies to the acting. But it doesn't seem to have really stopped anything. I don't think anyone planned on Nora becoming the the outlier here, but now it has really become the frontrunner in a lot of ways. Based on that, I think we're looking at a best picture. Best director for a Nora and Sean Baker. Okay, so I didn't know we would get to this point until right now, which we're here, which neither of us really predicted in order to win. Anything else I can tell you? I know a lot of shit about the Oscars. They there's no way in 2024 or 2025 they're going to give a movie picture director and nothing else. There has to be at least one other thing. And I'm telling you, your ballot and my ballot will reflect that, because that is a stat. It may seem dumb, but that is an Oscar stat that doesn't exist. And it would get it just wouldn't make sense because people are going to make jokes and then editing. Okay, okay. Then, I genuinely just need one more. I need either editing, screenplay or actress. What's the other one? It's nominated for six. You got six, right? Oh. Supporting actor. It's not going to win. If it wins editing then that will convince me a little bit that okay, now picture in director seems like it could actually happen. But if it does not win editing it does not win screenplay or actress. What's which will all surely become come before director picture maybe not actress. Sometimes they say one of the acting's. If it does not win those then I do not envision it winning picture in director. I will probably put on my ballot that I think it will win, which is a very odd thing for me to put on my ballot, but it will, I promise everyone. There is no way if a Nora wins picture director, that is the only thing. It's winning. There's no way that maybe makes a strong case for me for editing. But then are they going to give him three Oscars? Like, I don't know, man, it's crazy. Or I mean, do they give them a Nora Best Picture? And also nothing is going to win Best Picture and that will be its only award. That's not going to happen. It it will have to win at least one other one that is not director. So if it wins screenplay and then we hear Brady fucking be listed as the best director, then I think an award takes picture. I do not think the blue list. I think if it wins anything, maybe actor that maybe or I don't, but I don't I don't think man maybe director it's just not, it's it's not nearly as impressive of a movie as the director thinks it is. Whereas a Nora just impresses everybody. Well, I think then I think based off of that, then I think it's Corelli and Baker that are up for it. For director. Okay. Well, we're going to see because if you. Because okay, how about this? How about this. You get film editing to a Nora original screenplay goes to the substance, director goes to the substance, picture goes to a Nora. So you get editing. I'd be cool with that picture. I'd be cool with that if it happens, but I don't. I just want a Nora to win one of the following. I want it to win editing. I mean, that would be great, but I really would want it to win screenplay, director or picture because that means one of those awards is going to go to Sean Baker and then he will have it. I would hope it's picture and director, but I don't yeah, I don't this could be a situation where director is split and they just or they give him all four. I mean that would be nuts if we're that when the Oscars done where like a Nora won editing actress, screen screenplay, director picture. I don't know when. It just be beautiful though. Can't you just see that in the stars like a Nora? Five wins. I mean, best picture, best director, and I don't know, you could see it. I mean, in our humble opinion, it's the best of all the nothing that's nominated with. Yeah. So we're kind of coming down to a little bit of in these bigger categories. Sounds like we think the substance is going to creep in, maybe a real pain. And that could provide a Nora its biggest competition. The only I mean, I mean, there's one outlier here that we're just we're refusing to acknowledge, though, is that the brutalist is nominated. Every single one of these categories is. That's true. But as I predicted on nomination day, I think this is going to be one of those movies that gets 1011 nominations and zero wins. Maybe one win happens. Martin Scorsese, you got killers of the flower Moon, gazillion nominations, zero. Irishman zero. Gangs New York zero. It does happen. And I do think that'll be the fate. Or is there all. That's what I mean. It happens. Those are the only ones I could think of in the top of my head and have to do, Spielberg for The Color Purple. It happens. All right, all right. No, I, I, I mean, I hope so because I, you know, I don't, I, I mean, I guess you could also kind of throw in conclave into this mix, like conclave could win Best Picture. You get a baker gets a director. But then you'd also have to have it win. So so if it won it, well, if it won adapted screenplay. And then it won best picture. Yeah I always thought conclave was you got a player. I didn't think it was just kind of kind of. Well I mean but here's the thing though I think it actually is because it has been consist in in the awards season, it has won best ensemble for, for the SAG last night for the SAG. It also it also won in the Critics Choice Awards. It won Best ensemble. It it won I mean, in the Golden Globes, it won for adapted screenplay, and I believe it won for something else in it's in it's and it's a bunch of nominations. So it conclave has been quietly consistent this entire time, but it's been quiet. Yeah. A Nora is like jumping. And the substance has also, in its way, been like it's it's won screenplay awards along. Yeah. It's won director along the way. Demi Moore has been consistent too. So yeah. Honestly, it's it's really kind of tough here. And I think all of this is in response to the fact that Amelia Perez is just completely out of the game. Yeah. And the brutalist has not really done anything. Did it win the BAFTA? What won the BAFTA conclave? Won the BAFTA conclave. He won the water director. Okay. He. Yeah C sucks I know. But then Mickey won actress. So it's like what the hell? I mean this this this whole entire awards season, every single thing has won their do. Yeah like yeah like like there hasn't been a real frontrunner. There's like the only real things have been in the acting categories. You get the supporting actors, supporting actress Denise probably won and Adrian's won like those are the two that have won the most consistent in all of their nominations. Director has always been somebody different. Screenplay outside of conclave. Conclave is the only one that. But you were saying it didn't win the WGA, but I mean, it's won every other adapted screenplay nomination it's been up for. It's also a really, really safe Best Picture win for an Oscar. Yeah. I'm not counting it. I'm not bumping it up. But it's something that we can't ignore. Ignore. I do think conclave is going to win something like the technical ones, I don't I we could also be in a situation where the Best picture winner is not the movie with the most awards at the end of the night, I because I don't think like I think Wicked or Conclave could win 5 or 6 awards and then the Best Picture winner may not end up doing that. One other big stat to throw your way for nor so far we have wins like the PGA, the WGA, the DGA, Critics Choice with a lot of awards, precursor awards. It's the front runner based off of all of this. And for me, yes, it's almost a lock. If you win that many precursor awards, you win Best Picture. It's almost written in stone. I've seen people say it would take an act of God for anything other than in order to win. There's one movie that won all those precursor awards and did not win Best Picture every year, the movie. That's one of those awards that go on to win Best Picture, the one that did not Brokeback Mountain, and that was based on, well, just late and homophobia within the Academy. And they did it. They awarded Best Picture that year to the worst of the nominees, something it just a really, really baffling choice. So I don't think that is necessarily going to be the case for a Nora like I. I see a Nora. This is such a weird sentence to say. I don't want to jinx myself. Winning picture over director. Honestly, I see that is more of a I mean, based on. Yeah, I see that as more of a chance than director. I also think because we're so I am so close to this and my love for this film is so profound. Like for Oppenheimer, everyone was telling me it was going to win every like it was just. And I could see that steamroll. We don't have that here. So no, it's nice to have some emotional stake. When I didn't think of Nora was going to be considered, I thought I was hoping maybe editing or screenplay, and now I'm invested. I'm like, all right, let's let's do it. I'm not going to have my heart broken because I never really thought it would succeed. But I will just be fucking overjoyed if it ends up winning these. I'm nervous. I'm genuinely excited. It feels like this could get everything it's nominated for, kind of with the exception of picture. Feels like it could break off and go any number of ways. And if we end up where conclave is steamrolled, it just won everything. I'm going to be fucking pissed. I'm going to be so bad. But I don't know. I'm hoping. I'm hoping for good night. I'm hoping the wealth is spread. The more wins for a Nora for me, the better. The more times that is said as an envelope is open, the better. But yeah, we're we'll see. I'm extremely excited for editing. Is the first one to be excited for because that's going to be very telling. Yeah. Actress yeah. Both screenplays will you think adapt. It's a lock. Director picture. Adapt it. Come on. Yeah. I don't know. All right. Well yeah. I'm excited. Yeah. I'm lukewarm. No kidding. I'm excited. And next time people will hear from us, we will be, you know, right after the show, we're going on mic, we'll know the net. First sign they're going to hear from us before the show. We're live streaming, baby. We're streaming. You're making do it again. All right. Yeah. Set up some fucking rules first. I'm not. Do it first. The first rules that I'm not gonna have anything else planned for us that day. It just wasn't good planning because the show starts so early. There it starts. It for. And we usually like to have the red carpet on and, like, talk about it and joke around, so. Well, then you want to go an hour before the red carpet. I think we'll know. The red carpet starts at like so early. I think it would be smarter. But then an hour before that, hour before going on at 230 Pacific time is better than going on at three and ending right at four, because we just did it was it was entirely too chaotic. We didn't have a chance to like, focus on anything or do anything. So all right, well, we can commit to doing a live stream on Sunday, March 2nd. Let me look it up. Jesus Christ, I can't believe it's going to be know. It's going to be amazing. All right. Sunday, March 2nd at AIW Underscore Podcast on Instagram. There we will be live streaming our final up to the minute predictions for what will win the 97th Academy Awards. I'm fairly certain that everything I've predicted here is what I'm still going to go with, but there were a few I was up in the air about best original song. We're going to see if you want to join us on there. Live you can. We love and people are asking us questions. Last year it was a lot. Yeah, it was a lot of fun and I promise I won't be as we won't be. As frenzied leading up to it will be a nice soft intro into the into the recording like hello everyone. Not I'm doing ten things right now. Okay? You're projecting stuff. Projecting. I'm not. All right. Fine. Another live stream? Yeah. It's going to be so much fun. We'll have a great cause lesson. Fun things planned. I don't know what let's do. What you watching real quick, and then we'll send the lovely people on their way. Yeah, send them on their way. Would you like, would you like to go first? I mean, I always do, All right. So I'm throwing out, the movie that I've, I am watching. Well, actually, this is funny because the, I'm watching the Robert Altman, masterpiece of Nashville. So I have rewatched that. I have I mean, I remember watching that movie when I was younger. I mean, it's so funny because it's it's it's just truly one of. We talked about the ultimate hang movies. Yeah. And that's really all that that movie is. But there's so much going on there. Like, I mean, it is it is very representative of America's culture and society at that time. But what I've kind of then smash over the face with is how nothing has changed. It's like literally nothing like it's it's, it's it's subtle. It's not like a political movie in any sort of way. It's not like, trying to make a stance towards any kind of political, side. It's just a temperature. It's a temperature for how we all conduct ourselves in our society that we've set up. And by that measure, nothing has changed like we are. We we still value the exact same things. We still are as dumb and materialistic and, ignorant, racist, looking for fame, all of these things like it's all the same. And in the backdrop of what Nashville gives us is a voice over of a, political president on his campaign. But what that voiceover is, is hysterical, because that's the most true thing about today is like, it's it's just as ridiculous as today. It's crazy. The movie's 50 years old, 75, 75. And I'm like, now, like, you can always kind of go back and be like, oh, 30 years, but 50, that's half a century. And it's, it's it's wild to me. But it's also so much fun. It's just a really cool movie just to have on, and it's just so well done. What made you want to watch it? I don't know, man. It's random. It's random. I love it because when you you send me a text and you were like, dude, and you said a lot of things you just did, I was like, God damn, I just I love getting those texts and this is crazy. That is a single viewing in college for me. I have not told you for years. I don't think I've seen them in 20 years or longer. I don't even remember. It was voiceover I, I didn't even remember that. I remember the end. I remember certain things about it, but I made my way through as many altmans as I could get my hands, hands on about, like when I was in college. So yeah, about 20 years ago and I. Yeah, there's so he has such a unique style and I, I love that one. It's one of his more well known movies. But as soon as you said that, I was like, shit, I'm watching it, I'm rewatching it. So I'll rewatch it before I come out there because, yeah, it's like three hours. And part of the thing is you put it on and like, you sit with it. It is the hangout movie. It's one of, Brady Stills, his favorites as well. It's one of a lot of people's favorites. That's one of the all time movie years. Yeah. And it's also like when you watch it. I mean, I'm sure there's other movies that have been done like this before it, but I mean, you look at any of these movies that we love today, I mean, Jesus Christ, Richard Linklater I mean, when you look at his hangout movies, Dazed and Confused, everybody wants some. Whenever he takes that approach, like watching Nashville is sort of like, well, this is obviously your template. Like you are. Yeah. Like, this is exactly how you kind of like position this. And but the thing about Nashville that I have to imagine why it's very unique is that you really do have to kind of even though it's a hang, you can just put it on. It's all in the catching of the little subtleties. It's like a it's all in a line that's being spoken off camera from a scene that we were previously watching, or we're just about to enter where because it's, it's the transition where because we're seeing it's a giant group and and some of them are just dumb and silly, but they're hilarious, which goes to show you Altman's humor that, yeah, you can you can tell that the comedy is not necessarily in the joke. It's in the kind of, absurdity of the times that we live in a servic. You know? I wanted to make sure I got it right. That's it's like kind of, style of humor. Very acerbic style of humor. Sharp. Yeah. The sour yellow kind of. Yeah, I know words. That's a great one, I love it. I've, you know, I've loved Altman. The players, one of my all time favorite movies. I love that movie. So yeah, that's fun. I'm definitely going to rewatch Nashville though because of that. Like soon as you know what won the Robert Altman Award at the Films Independent Spirit Awards, don't you? Yes I do, he damn, he really set it up for long enough. My God, it's like a five minute intro for a very, very, very simple movie. Like, it's just a decent movie and he's like, got his three daughters, Tracy, let's introduce it. And his wife is in it, Carrie Coon. But I was like, God damn, they really wrote the hell out of this copy. Like he was just Tracy Letts going on and on. And I'm like, are you reading the Wikipedia? Wikipedia plot description? Like just going anyway. Deservingly. So yeah. Deservingly so great film. No falls at all. My one that I am recommending. Black Box Diaries and that is not a joke. I'm going there. So the thing is, it's a story about a woman. I'm. You know, it's just I can't pronounce her name. Well, but the the woman who who that happened to the who was assaulted. She is the one writing the documentary. She is the investigative journalist. She is investigating her own rape. So you're watching her do all this stuff when she calls people, she's not like, hey, so do you remember seeing that girl, like, get out of the car? It's. Do you remember seeing me get out of the car that night? Do you remember? And she is fighting up against this known perpetrator who was at the time the Washington, DC bureau chief for the Tokyo Broadcasting System. So this is a part of Japan's MeToo movement. And it was this huge deal in it. You know, you can watch the documentary to find out what happens or it doesn't happen, but it's the fact that she is not some victimized, quiet subject that we're seeing be interviewed. We're fucking there with her. We are there in apartments. We are there on the street with her. If she has to hide something because she's going to go talk to someone who doesn't want to know that she has a camera recording on them. She's doing that. And the whole time it's like this happened to her. So there was this, that whole message of it and that insistence on like, I'm going to keep fighting. I don't give a shit if these dumb ass men are going to listen to me. Really liked it, I found it. I have Paramount Plus. So I watched it on Paramount Plus, which is where it is, and Black Box Diaries absolutely my pick for best documentary. I don't think it'll win, but this was of all the nominees I hadn't seen. This one really blew me away and I had a very intense emotional reaction to this movie. This is a topic I take extremely seriously, and this was a documentary done very well about a serious topic. Go watch it. I move, for Paramount+ now. So, so I could watch. Don't we all, in some way or another. This is going to be fun. This is Monday, February 24th. I'm going to get these up on the feed as soon as I can this episode. Okay everyone, thank you so much for listening. Find us on X. Definitely find us on Instagram. The day of the Oscars at Wawa Underscore podcast, we will be live broadcasting our official picks for these Oscars. But as always, thank you so much for listening and happy watching the world come alive tonight. Stay close to me. Hey everyone, thanks again for listening. You can watch my films and read my movie blog at Alex withrow.com. Nicholas dose.com is where you can find all of Nick's film work. Send us mailbag questions at What Are You Watching podcast at gmail.com or find us on Twitter, Instagram and Letterboxd at wri w underscore podcast. I'm rewatching conclave. I'm worried. Picture adapted screenplay, editing. Conclave original screenplay. Actress. The substance director. Nora, this is the most exciting Oscar race we've covered yet. I will be nervous the next time you can hear from us is on Instagram Live at AIW underscore podcast March 2nd, the day of the awards 230 Pacific Standard Time 230. Going to be fun. I'm going to be really, really nervous. That's the next time you can hear from us. Our next official episode will be the one that we record directly after these awards. I hope for decent indoor numbers one. Give me 115123 and we're golden. Stay tuned. Am. Oh, I'm the one who comes along. I'm the one that comes to mind. I'm the one on your minds. 000. Stay close to me. Hold on, stay close to me.